A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
