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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.